Albertarocks medication haldol’ TA Discussions

‘real’ signals in 8 trading days who’s going to quibble? That’s a strong enough warning for anybody who is at medication haldol least half lucid. Consider this… If you and your lovely family were out sailing on medication haldol the gulf of oman some beautiful saturday afternoon in your medication haldol 42 footer, and the iranian navy fired a 6-pounder across your bow, you know darned well you’d take notice. The prudent sailor might even take the hint and reverse medication haldol course. But naturally there are always the few heroes who might medication haldol be considered as… What’s the best word… Daft… The ones who would wait for a second volley just medication haldol to be sure. Not a smart choice in my opinion. Not when taking cannon fire. And especially not when the HO is firing the volleys. For, he who dares hold his course even after 6 rounds medication haldol have whizzed past his nose, each successive shot being closer than the last… Well the odds are high that sailor’s ship is surely destined to take one up the medication haldol assigned target.

So now that we’ve accepted that the current hindenburg omen event is at medication haldol the very least the real deal, we should embrace this rare opportunity to pay attention and medication haldol watch how the drama unfolds. And to that end, one of the questions that has been asked most frequently medication haldol as of late is this; " does the number of signals, or the type of cluster, have any predictive value about the extent of the decline medication haldol that might ensue?". The short answer, the most common response, and the answer I have used to squirm out of medication haldol doing a ton of work in the form of back-research, is "no! Once the HO has issued a confirmed signal, as far as the number of signals is concerned, all we can do is refer to the past history medication haldol of ‘what happened next’ and take our best guess. The actual number of subsequent (and redundant) signals is of no value in determining how far the medication haldol NYSE might drop.". That also happens to be the ‘correct’ answer.

But I have never heard this question asked: " does the steepness of the rally prior to a confirmed medication haldol hindenburg event offer any predictive value?". What a heck of a great question that is! And one would have to think that of all the medication haldol factors to ponder, that is probably the most logical one to investigate. I have never done that investigation. First of all, I didn’t even think of it. And secondly, it represents a lot of work, too much for the little time I have. In fact, keeping my eye on the HO and reporting on it medication haldol has taken up way too much of my time and medication haldol focus over the past 4 years as it is… To the extent that I haven’t published any article on any other topic since march medication haldol 16th. I have other things to do you know. I have to tend to things. Like, I take a bath every single month… Sometimes more than once.

But wait! The strangest thing just happened. Right out of the blue, at 2:00 in the morning on friday, an old friend of mine from tasmania who I haven’t seen in at least 2 years pops up on medication haldol seeking alpha and drops the whole bundle on my desk. Let me back up a moment and tell you who medication haldol this guy is. He’s an occasional commenter who goes by the name of medication haldol wave rider. Why the name wave rider? I can only guess, but since he’s from tasmania I think it’s safe to assume that he has done a little medication haldol surfing somewhere along the line. I hadn’t really spoken with mr. Rider all that often in the past, but I definitely remember him and do recall that we medication haldol had some nice exchanges, beginning perhaps 3-4 years ago. To be honest I don’t even remember where that might have happened because we medication haldol first met before ‘this’ blog even came into existence. On second thought, it was probably over at seeking alpha. In any case, I recall that rider made a lot of sense and medication haldol he was a nice fellow. The type of guy I’d love to have a beer with some day.

With the name wave rider maybe he’s referring to elliott waves. But I can’t help but to think of tasmanians, kiwis and australians as wavers of the water sports variety. One thing I will state with all seriousness though, over the past 5 years I noticed that aussies and medication haldol kiwis, for whatever reason, have amazing talents at technical analysis. I’m dead serious… Their ability to make sense out of mayhem regarding elliott medication haldol wave theory is truly impressive. Coming up with elliott wave predictions is as much an medication haldol art as a science and it’s not easy to do. I don’t have the patience for it. I don’t thrive well in an environment where "being wrong quite often and having to find a viable medication haldol alternative" is acceptable. As a natural response to my own ineptitude, I have become acutely cognizant of real talent when I medication haldol see it. And those deep southerners have it in spades. Not to disparage accomplished EW practitioners from many other parts medication haldol of the world who are very good at it as medication haldol well. It’s just that… I don’t know what it is, perhaps it has something to do with living under the medication haldol southern cross, but man… People living ‘down under’ just seem to have a slightly different type of vision. Clearer vision. And it appears that applies to people living on tasmania medication haldol as well.

ENTER WAVE RIDER : right out of the blue, totally unsolicited, this man who seldom speaks pops up out of nowhere medication haldol at 2 o’clock in the morning and delivers one of the finest medication haldol detailed, properly focused, thinking-outside-the-box, analyses I’ve seen in quite some time. It’s targeted at exactly the right question: " does the steepness of the rally prior to a confirmed medication haldol hindenburg event offer any predictive value?". Wave rider actually went to the trouble to do that medication haldol analysis, going all the way back to 1986. And then he handed it to us. What a gift! Not unlike satoshie nakamoto of bitcoin fame. But unlike satoshie, wave rider does indeed exist. With his gracious permission, I’m proud to offer readers his report as follows:

I also hope readers appreciate how many hours went into medication haldol this analysis. When I asked wave rider for his permission to reproduce medication haldol this meaningful work, he graciously granted it although initially he hadn’t anticipated that his offering would reach this wider audience medication haldol [yes, this blog gets far more weekly visits than the HO medication haldol blog at seeking alpha does, not to mention the huge exposure that global economic intersection medication haldol will also be providing for mr. Rider’s opus].

As a result of my request, WR revisited his work just to make sure he was medication haldol satisfied with it, and then did offer a few additional comments and clarifiers. In order that you can easily find all his commentary, I’m happy to provide this link that should take you medication haldol directly to the bundle he initially dropped on my desk, this one which will take you directly to the comment medication haldol which includes his data set, and this link which would take you to the entire medication haldol blog where you can scroll the comments section to read medication haldol wave rider’s additional commentary and detail, after the fact.

Just a short report today friends. It was a long weekend in canada so I took medication haldol my eye off the markets for today. But when I checked the market internals stats this evening medication haldol I was a bit surprised to have discovered that the medication haldol hindenburg omen issued another signal today. It was a rather strange one as well because the medication haldol numbers for the new 52 week highs and lows were medication haldol BOTH higher than usual for an HO signal day. Nonetheless, all conditions were met so the market has generated another medication haldol HO signal.

With the last HO signal having occurred on june 19th, this one could be still be considered as part of medication haldol a larger cluster that began back then. No matter how we want to classify it though, the message is the same… That although the market is still officially rising (as determined by the fact that the 50 day MA medication haldol on the NYSE is rising), while there were 206 new 52 week highs generated, there were ALSO 111 new lows. And that dear readers is the exact type of polarity medication haldol that the HO was designed to detect and issue an medication haldol alert on.

Already had a confirmed HO event 15 days ago on medication haldol june 4th. When clusters of HO signals like these begin to develop medication haldol the message is more than clear… Although the market is bouncing, although the VIX and VXX are showing ridiculous degrees of medication haldol complacency, the markets continue to show serious degrees of polarity in medication haldol that there are darned near as many stocks making new medication haldol 52 week lows as there are making new highs. How could anyone possibly have faith that the markets are medication haldol going to continue to head higher from here even in medication haldol the face of seemingly endless floods of liquidity courtesy of medication haldol the fed? When the hindenburg omen goes off in clusters of alarms, it does so for a reason.

UPDATED JUNE 13, 2013 – the hindenburg omen came very close to going off again medication haldol today but again, as was the case with the june 10th signal (below), it would have been considered as just another redundant red medication haldol flag since we already had a confirmed HO event 9 medication haldol days ago on june 4th.

UPDATED JUNE 10, 2013 – the hindenburg omen went off again today but it is medication haldol a redundant signal since we already had a confirmed HO medication haldol event 6 days ago on june 4th. Nonetheless, and this is definitely worth noting, although the market has put in a bounce of sorts medication haldol nothing has changed internally. The polarity on the NYSE that the HO is concerned medication haldol about is still there.

According to the WSJ, the official source for data regarding new 52 week highs medication haldol and lows on the NYSE, with 10 minutes remaining in the trading day the final medication haldol piece of the puzzle was put in place when the medication haldol hindenburg omen issued its second signal in four days. And with that we now have an official hindenburg omen medication haldol event, the first since august of 2010.

As all my followers know by now, in order for an official hindenburg omen signal to go medication haldol into the history books the HO must issue two signals medication haldol within 30 trading days. One prominent analyst declares 36 days but is ambiguous about medication haldol whether that is calendar days or trading days. This has caused some confusion regarding that rule, so here it is according to the inventor of the medication haldol HO, mr. Jim meikka : the rule is 30 trading days.

Therefore, last friday’s signal occurred too late to be considered as the medication haldol second and confirming signal for the april 15th sighting. With today’s signal, the second in only 4 calendar days, that entire discussion is now a moot point. We can confirm that the hindenburg omen has just issued medication haldol its first "official event" since august 2010. There could very well be more occurrences of the HO medication haldol signal tomorrow or next week or the week after that, but now that the second signal has been issued today medication haldol any further alerts will be considered redundant. They are not required and they are not taken into medication haldol consideration. All they would accomplish would be to reconfirm that the medication haldol market remains very polarized. In fact, if a serious decline were to get underway the equities medication haldol markets should enter into a state where there is no medication haldol more polarization because the majority of the horses will be medication haldol pulling the stock wagon downhill. Therefore any further HO signals are not only irrelevant, they are likely to stop occurring should the markets decide medication haldol to head south with some authority.

As well, and this is a ruling factor, if the NYSE begins to fall from here the 50 medication haldol day moving average on the NYSE will soon be turning medication haldol downward which would effectively render the hindenburg omen incapable of medication haldol issuing any further signals. Because of the 50 day MA rule, there is actually a fairly small window of opportunity within medication haldol which the HO can issue its alerts and once the medication haldol MA rolls lower that window is closed. This has always been one of the primary reasons the medication haldol hindenburg omen goes off so seldom. It’s also the primary cause of erroneous claims by uninformed medication haldol analysts that the HO had gone off when in fact medication haldol it had not (because the moving average had rolled over which to the medication haldol HO is like unplugging your TV set from the wall). And by extension, it’s the primary reason that the HO gets a bad medication haldol name in the press, one that it absolutely does not deserve. In fact, and you have no idea how much this irks me, feel free to click this link to visit my last medication haldol report on the HO and see for yourself. One commenter asked the damning question " how many times has this thing failed over the past medication haldol 4 years?". And the answer of course is "none". For god’s sake, it has only gone off once in the past 4 medication haldol years (meaning a ‘confirmed’ event).

There’s not much else to report regarding the HO, nor would I dare make any predictions about what comes medication haldol next. All we know with certainty is that the fed has medication haldol proven to be very powerful in not only saving the medication haldol markets from the decline that should have kept going right medication haldol on through the march 2009 low, but in driving the markets higher from there by a medication haldol mind blowing 153.4% (S&P 500). In other words, the fed has driven the stock markets up at the medication haldol rate of 24.56% per year (compounded) for 51 consecutive months now and claims this meteoric rise medication haldol is due to "improving economic conditions". Give me a break!

To say that the recent lofty heights of equities markets medication haldol around the world are way out of line and totally medication haldol artificial would be the understatement of this century. Therefore, to expect that the markets will put in a reasonably medication haldol mild correction of only 3 to 5% is probably a bit on the optimistic side. Nonetheless, a minor decline is entirely possible, at least as revealed in the HO’s record book. And in light of the obvious intentions of the meddling medication haldol central banks of the world, a minor decline is possible.

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